Who Will Win the Next Presidency – Trump or Harris?
Who do you believe will win the next presidency – Former President Donald Trump or Vice President Kamala Harris? Our guest tonight has an accurate prediction for presidential winners for years and has it down to a science. He’s been correct in nine of the last ten presidential races.
Introducing Allan Lichtman – The Presidential Predictor
Joining us on The Factor Uncensored tonight, we have a very special guest from American University, history professor and presidential predictor, Allan Lichtman.
The Man Who Predicted Nine of the Last Ten Presidential Elections
Lichtman is renowned for his impressive track record in predicting nine out of the last ten presidential elections. When asked about Al Gore’s loss, Lichtman contends that the election was decided in the courts, stating, “I think they stole Gore from you because that was decided in the courts.” Lichtman agrees, adding, “I should be ten out of ten.”
The 13 Keys to the White House: How They Work
Looking ahead to the next election between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, Lichtman explains his 13 keys to the White House, a system that has been accurate since Reagan’s election in 1982, nearly three years ahead of time when 60% of Americans said Reagan was too old to run again.
Lichtman dismisses pundits, saying, “They’re my buddies, but they have no scientific basis for their opinions.” He also criticizes polls, calling them “snapshots” that are abused by poll aggregators like Nate Silver, who incorrectly predicted Hillary Clinton’s win in 2016. “The keys are different,” Lichtman explains. “They tap into the structure of how American presidential elections really work.”
The Factors That Influence the Keys
His system measures factors such as midterm elections, incumbency, internal party contests, the economy, policy changes, social unrest, scandals, foreign and military successes, and failures. Only two of the keys are related to the candidates themselves, and those candidates need to be once-in-a-generation figures like FDR and Reagan.
Prediction: Kamala Harris to Win the 2024 Election
According to Lichtman’s system, if five or fewer keys turn against the White House party, that party is predicted to win. With only four keys currently turned against the Democrats, his system predicts that Kamala Harris will be the next president, making her the first female and first president of mixed race to take office.
A Shift Toward a Majority-Minority America
Lichtman believes Harris’s victory would symbolize the direction in which America is heading, stating, “We’re rapidly becoming a majority-minority country. Old white guys like me are on the way out.” He shared this prediction as an exclusive on The Factor Uncensored.
Pollsters vs. The 13 Keys: The 2016 Trump Victory
Returning to the subject of pollsters, Lichtman criticizes how they flip-flop in their predictions, and he recalls how many people thought Hillary Clinton would defeat Donald Trump in 2016. “People were shocked,” Lichtman says. “Not me. I predicted Trump right from the start based on the keys to the White House.”
Why the 2016 Election Was So Unpredictable
He explains that the 2016 election was gauged against the incumbent party’s performance during Obama’s term. The Democrats lost the midterm elections and failed to make significant policy changes or follow up the killing of Osama bin Laden with another major foreign success. Lichtman’s prediction of a Trump victory wasn’t popular in D.C., where he teaches at American University, but he emphasizes that his predictions are nonpartisan, having accurately predicted victories for both conservative and liberal presidents, from Reagan to Obama.
What About Trump vs. Biden?
When asked about a hypothetical race between Trump and Biden, Lichtman clarifies that he never made a final call. “I never deal in hypotheticals because we never know what would have happened,” he explains. However, he notes that Harris’s entry likely salvaged the third-party key, since voters no longer had to choose between two old white men. Her candidacy may have also helped with the social unrest key, as protests were directed against Biden, who stepped into the background.
The Democratic Party’s Handling of the Transition
Lichtman is critical of how the Democrats initially handled the transition from Biden to Harris. “They were trashing their incumbent president right out in public,” he says, noting that he had never seen anything like it. In his view, the Democrats were at risk of losing the incumbency key and causing a party brawl that would have cost them another key – the contest key.
The Importance of the Contest Key
Lichtman points out that no White House party has won reelection since 1900 when losing both the incumbency key and the contest key. He speculates that perhaps the Democrats took his advice, as they eventually united behind Harris, which saved the contest key.
Closing Remarks
In conclusion, Lichtman remains confident in his prediction that Kamala Harris will win the presidency in 2024. “We’re going to have a new, path-breaking president,” he says, noting the historical significance of Harris’s candidacy.
“All right, you heard it here first,” the host concludes, wrapping up the conversation with Dr. Allan Lichtman on The Factor Uncensored.
